What's UConn's ceiling in the NCAA Tournament? 'Whatever we decide it to be'

UConn women’s basketball hasn’t won a national championship in seven years and if that drought extends to eight later this month, it’d be hard to blame anyone. The Huskies have been decimated with injuries and have six players out for the season. They rely on a top trio of seniors, then four freshmen behind them. At some point, UConn might just not have enough to beat one of the other top teams in the field.

Even Geno Auriemma knows the odds don’t favor his team.

“Some years I would tell you I like our chances. Some years I would tell you we'd have to get really lucky,” he said. “I would say this year, we would have to get exceptionally lucky to go really deep in this tournament.”

Don’t tell the players that, though. The Huskies might be shorthanded, but they haven’t given up on the idea of cutting down the nets in Cleveland.

“I still feel like the sky's the limit. We have everything we need,” Paige Bueckers said. “Obviously, our margin for error is a lot smaller than other teams and we don't have the luxury of having five deep on the bench, players that can come in and do the same things as the starters. But I feel like we have what it takes.”

That idea isn’t that far-fetched, though. Even though UConn is a 3-seed — it’s just the second time since 1994 that the Huskies aren’t on the top two lines — ESPN Analytics give it the second-best chance to win it all behind only undefeated South Carolina. That’s not the only metric that loves UConn: ELO Chess — which correctly predicted last year’s Final Four and got three of four teams right in both 2022 and 2021 — has the Huskies as the third-best team in the nation.

There’s also a path back to the Final Four for UConn. Assuming the Huskies get out of their own sub-regional — which they’ve done in 29 consecutive seasons — they’d likely face 2-seed Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen. If they get revenge on the Buckeyes for last season, they’d face top-seeded USC in the Elite Eight so long as chalk holds.

UConn matches up well against both those teams. It has the ball-handlers to deal with the Buckeyes’ press defense — not to mention a healthy amount of motivation after being knocked out by them in last year’s Sweet Sixteen — and has an edge in both experience and secondary talent on the Trojans. Neither are guaranteed wins by any means, but it’s not a David vs. Goliath matchup in the way that a meeting with South Carolina would be.

The Huskies aren’t worried about who they may potentially face, though. Their focus remains internal. They believe as long as they play their game, there’s no limit on how far they can go.

“I think our ceiling is whatever we decide it to be,” Aaliyah Edwards said. “It has to be like ‘We are in control’ because I think there's a lot of games this past season, especially out of conference games, that I feel like we let the game get away from us and we failed on our own mistakes.”

There’s no shame in needing a little luck, either — UConn has certainly benefited in the past. Back in 2013, UConn never had to play No. 1 overall seed Baylor because 5-seed Louisville pulled off the upset in the Sweet Sixteen. The Huskies went on to crush the Cardinals in the title game.

Most other national champions need some luck, too. Where it’s South Carolina getting an injured Stanford team and Mississippi State instead of UConn in 2017, Arike Ogunbowale missing a free throw that would’ve tied the game with 1.9 seconds left in 2019 to give Baylor the title or the stars aligning in every possible way for LSU last season, most teams that come out on top need to catch a break or two (or five, if you’re LSU) to be the last team standing.

The Huskies haven’t gotten any luck over the last three years with all their injuries. Maybe that’ll finally change over the next few weeks, or maybe all the absences eventually catch up.

Still, UConn will have the best player on the floor in most, if not every game this tournament with Bueckers. Not many teams have a better sidekick than Edwards, either. That duo, combined with the Huskies’ confidence and the chaos of March, mean they shouldn’t be counted out.

“We're super confident,” Nika Mühl said. “This past week of practice, I can tell that we're super hungry. All the individuals, the coaching staff, just hungry. Just hungry for getting better for getting smarter, getting disciplined and we've been practicing really, really well. I'm just very excited. I can't wait to get started.”